Warm ocean temperatures are set to usher in three major storms by the end of the month, marking the peak of this year’s hurricane season. The hurricane season runs from June to November and has already been far busier in 2017 than in years past. So far this year the Atlantic has seen seven named storms, with two of them eventually morphing into full-blown hurricanes.
Traditionally, the most damaging storms form from late-August through October, putting these three potential storms right in the sweet spot. The National Hurricane Council gave the first two storms a 50 percent chance of morphing into large storms. The third potential storm has a 40% chance. While it is possible that some storms reach the United States later on in the season none of these storms seem likely to impact the continental United States in any measurable way in the short term.
Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company in Andover, Massachusetts spoke with the Insurance Journal, telling them that “An additional 10 storms, six hurricanes and three major systems have been seen on average from now until the season’s end over the past 15 years. Those levels look quite reasonable, if not a touch low, going forward,”.
Susan Buchanan, director of public affairs at NOAA’s National Weather Service told the New Scientist that their recent season update “…to the initial outlook in May increases the likelihood of an above-normal season to 60 per cent from 45 per cent…We urge people who live in hurricane-prone areas, especially those with a history of flooding from heavy rain and storm surge, to be prepared with an emergency plan and kit.”.
There is no way to 100% accurately predict how the rest of the hurricane season will play out, but if these early-events are any indication insurers should buckle up for an abnormally busy season. If you live in a hurricane/flood-prone area and don’t have flood insurance, now is the time.